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Key Coalition-held seats will be targeted by a wave of independent campaigns at the next federal election, with the aim of achieving stronger action on climate change. But it could be a different story for independent MP Zali Steggall, with ex-premier Gladys Berejiklian touted by some Liberals as a potential candidate in the Sydney federal seat of Warringah. Found insideIndependent Zali Steggall's successful campaign for the seat of Warringah was a turning point. It has inspired long-time conservative voters in other seats to take matters into their own hands and find and back pro-climate independents. Found inside – Page 11The 1990 Federal Election Clive Bean, Ian McAllister, John Warhurst. led the Nationals since Hawke's first victory in 1983 was also deposed . The Nationals were looking for a new image and chose Charles Blunt , the member for the seat ... Outgoing Prime Minister of New South Wales, Gladys Berejiklian, was approached by the state's top liberals to run for the federal Warringah seat. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2016 Australian federal election. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. Gladys Berejiklian's departure has prompted some Liberals to tout her as a federal contender for Tony Abbott's old seat of Warringah, currently held by Zali Steggall. It is now held by Steggall on a 7.2% margin. In order of Labor vulnerability, they are Macquarie (NSW), Lilley (Qld), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Cowan (WA), Corangamite (Vic), Blair (Qld), Dobell (NSW), Moreton (Qld), Gilmore (NSW), Dunkley (Vic), Greenway (NSW), Griffith (Qld) and Hunter (NSW). Phillips, who entered parliament in 2019 after local Liberal party members split over Morrison’s decision to parachute Warren Mundine in as the candidate, told Guardian Australia on Monday she had “seen it all before in Gilmore”. We're giving you FREE access to find out which stocks our Switzer Report experts think have the highest upside in October and beyond! 'Warringah' is believed to be an Aboriginal word meaning 'sign of rain', 'across the waves' or 'sea'. In 2019, he increased his two-party-preferred margin by 2.81 per . Liberal MP, John Alexander, said that Gladys Berejiklian would “be a great asset” for the party federally if she chose to run. Note: In some cases a locality/suburb or postcode may be in more than one federal electorate. . (Gladys Berejiklian, Liberal). Political Tendencies and History: The AEC describes Warringah as a safe Liberal seat. The word "Warrin ga" was recorded as the local name for Middle Harbour in 1832. It would be a great thing to entice her – but she might need some time to mend.”. Supporters of Berejiklian are confident that the Icac investigation will clear her of any wrongdoing, while Berejiklian has insisted she has always acted with “integrity”. Tony Abbott became a poorer, less representative 'match' for his electorate as the years went by. That means the Liberal Party needs a swing of 7.3% to take back Warringah. On the 2019 statistics, Warringah is the 35th weakest "Labor" seat. A “factional round table” has already been set up in NSW to negotiate the outcome in a range of seats, including in the held seats of Reid, Mitchell and North Sydney where challenges to sitting MPs had emerged. Boris Johnson faces by-election test of popularity. Monaro has this distinction: whereas Willoughby, Bega and Holsworthy recorded swings to Labor in 2019 the swing went the other way in Monaro. Found inside – Page 129... the area were enrolled in Beauty Point.29 St John won the seat in the December 1966 Federal election, despite the efforts of an "Independent Liberal" who clearly had support from within the Warringah Federal Electorate Conference. Found insideIt is a competent and interesting description of the campaign run by elements of the extreme Right before and during the Federal by - election in 1966 for the blue - ribbon Liberal seat of Warringah in New South Wales . It's the story of how a loose confederation of influential climate-science sceptics, politicians and business leaders sought to control Australia's response to the climate crisis. This is the second attempt in as many years by Constance to break into federal politics and follows his aborted attempt to run for Eden-Monaro. Political analysts credit recent major upsets in seats including Warringah and Indi to unpopular or divisive local MPs and the right mix of name recognition, on-the-ground organisation and . WA 3 minutes ago Shock vision of brawl that left father fighting for life. On the 2019 statistics, Warringah is the 35th weakest “Labor” seat. If this is the case, please contact the AEC to confirm . 710. Prime Minister Scott . “I look forward to talking to the local branch members, they are the ones who decide this. Massola recreates the drama, tension and inspiration of the days in July 2018 when the eyes of the whole world were trained on a remote Thai mountain. It splits the vote up and makes for more preferencing . Constance faces some resistance from within the party, however, with south coast lawyer Paul Ell securing strong support of moderates in the branch to run. Penny Ackery addresses her supporters in Goulburn on Saturday. Facing a tough battle in his Warringah seat, Tony Abbott could push for a frontbench position after the election, and won't rule out a tilt at leader. “I’m more thinking as a punter – what an asset she would be for the Liberal party,” he told Guardian Australia. Note: In some cases a locality/suburb or postcode may be in more than one federal electorate. I will be putting my best foot forward, not only on my record and what I have achieved in the last 18 and a half years as the state member, but more importantly what I can achieve in the future,” Constance told Guardian Australia. Labor’s lowest chance is in Willoughby where the 2015 buffer is 23.8% and in 2019 “only” 21.1%. It just so happens that there have been two NSW general elections held on the same electoral boundaries, on 28 March 2015 and on 23 March 2019. Barilaro’s 2015 buffer is only 2.6% but his 2019 buffer is 11.7%, making Monaro look safe for the Nationals. Answer (1 of 5): I think it shows the danger for MPs straying to far from the views of their constituents on too many issues, or at least, issues of major concern for people in that electorate. The party is also scouting for a conservative candidate to run in the seat of Hughes against former Liberal Craig Kelly, who shifted to the crossbench earlier this year, and will run under Clive Palmer’s United Australia banner. I have no idea as to whether Gladys Berejiklian will be the Liberal candidate for Warringah. He w. The two-candidate preferred votes were 52,728 for Steggall and 39,395 for the defeated incumbent Tony Abbott. 26 October 2021. It is likely that these seats will not go to a ballot of branch members, with the party expected to blame lockdowns and the limited time before the election for the decision, and emphasising the need for “stability and certainty” around sitting members. My only problem #EXCLUSIVE: The outgoing NSW premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has been approached by senior Liberals in the state to run for the federal seat of Warringah. Gladys Berejiklian's departure has prompted some Liberals to tout her as a federal contender for Tony Abbott's old . 'Will Steven Marshall win the South Australian state Election? Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The Labor MP for Gilmore, Fiona Phillips, accused the Liberals of “talking about themselves” following Constance’s announcement. Found inside – Page 41THE WARRINGAH CAMPAIGN Mr. St. John , Q.C. , the Liberal Member ments tried to topple the Liberal candifor the Federal seat of Warringah , dis- date . This then is primarily the story of cusses the recent book about his 1966 the ... incumbent Zali Steggall. Share this news on your Fb,Twitter and Whatsapp . Division of Warringah. Gladys Berejiklian's departure has prompted some Liberals to tout her as a federal contender for Tony Abbott's old seat of Warringah, currently held by Zali Steggall. However, the reality is that Barilaro had a huge personal vote resulting in a swing his way of 9.1%. Found inside – Page 1950... apology media: 'That's and hung lawyers' up with, speak 'You'll for “I'm be going to sue you” ... it's the third time he's threatened to sue members of this organisation election in the this federal year.'19 seat Abbott of Warringah ... The latest possible . WARRINGAH NORTH SYDNEY WILLOUGHBY MOSMAN MANLY WOOLLAHRA KU-RING-GAI WARRINGAH LANE COVE MACKELLAR NORTH SYDNEY SYDNEY (includes Lord Howe Island) WENTWORTH . . If she asked for my advice, I would advise her to seek her party’s preselection for Warringah – and take on independent incumbent Zali Steggall. Share. She is also Australia's most successful alpine skier, winning a bronze medal in slalom at the 1998 Winter Olympics in Nagano, and a World Championship gold medal in 1999. Australian electorates similar to or like Division of Warringah. Credit: Alex Tewes The incumbent holds the seat with a big majority. “I love our region, its people and I could not be more proud to continue to serve. My only problem with it is that I neglected to predict both Greiner and Berejiklian would see their leadership of the state undone by a star chamber known as the Independent Commission Against Corruption – a body set up by Greiner and defended by Berejiklian! File source. Constance said he would be putting his case to members. The headline I have put to this article is deliberately provocative. I explained why I think Labor has a 20% chance of winning South Australia’s autumn 2022 election while I give Labor a 40% chance at the autumn 2022 federal election. Coming in at third greatest would be Sir Robert Askin.”. They will also notice that both are of non-Anglo Celtic background. Pellentesque ornare sem lacinia quam venenatis vestibulum. deliberately provocative. That was a pretty good prediction. Prior to this, Warringah had been held by a member of the Liberal Party, or one of its predecessors, since the seat was established in 1922. Warringah covers an area from Neutral Bay, Mosman and Manly in the south to Curl Curl and Frenchs Forest (part) in the north. © 2006-2021 Switzer. By contrast, Labor has 13 seats needing swings to lose of under 3%. The percentages were 57.24 for Steggall and 42.76 for Abbott. Meanwhile, Berejiklian’s resignation has sparked off what looks likely to be a “mini general election”, five simultaneous by-elections - in the Labor seat of Strathfield and in these Coalition seats, showing the resigning member in brackets: Bega (Andrew Constance, Liberal), Holsworthy (Melanie Gibbons, Liberal), Monaro (John Barilaro, Nationals) and Willoughby (Gladys Berejiklian, Liberal). their leadership of the state undone by a star chamber known as the Independent Prime Minister Scott Morrison has hinted that Gladys Berejiklian could make a move into federal politics. The percentages were 57.24 for Steggall and 42.76 for Abbott. Gladys Berejiklian approached by senior Liberals to run in federal seat of Warringah. Searches are not case sensitive. Gladys Berejiklian approached by senior Liberals to run in federal seat of Warringah Australia News - Sarah Martin and Paul Karp • 2h The outgoing New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has been approached by senior Liberals in the state to run for the federal seat of Warringah. Profile of the electoral division of Warringah (NSW) Named after the area in which the electoral division is located. On the old boundaries, Labor needed a swing of 5.7% to take Stirling. "The opportunity for Senators to locate themselves and work in key areas such as this for Andrew, is one I encourage all my colleagues to take up. They believe Constance is key to winning Gilmore from Labor, with the seat integral to the Coalition’s strategy of gaining seats in NSW to offset expected losses elsewhere. Exclusive: Supporters of Berejiklian are confident the Icac investigation will clear her of any wrongdoing and . So, in the event of a zero overall swing Labor would likely lose two or three seats. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. "I want to get in on the conversation around January 26 and start that conversation in a way that advocates for healing and truth telling," she says. October 05, 2021 - 13:46PM. '. The party is struggling to agree on the best candidate to run against Ms Steggall in Warringah, the seat previously held by former prime minister Tony Abbott but considered a major challenge for . The outgoing New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has been approached by senior Liberals in the state to run for the federal seat of Warringah. An independent candidate for the federal seat of North Sydney will hope to replicate Zali Steggall's 2019 victory over Tony Abbott in neighbouring Warringah. You can view a copy of my pendulum for the forthcoming SA election here. My assessment, therefore, is that Monaro is Labor’s best chance. theguardian.com - The outgoing New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has been approached by senior Liberals in the state to run for the federal seat of Warringah. Previously, at the 2013 . The percentages were 57.24 for Steggall and 42.76 for Abbott. It just so happens that there have been two NSW general elections held on the same electoral boundaries, on 28 March 2015 and on 23 March 2019. But while the process is in train for preselection to take place, some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected if Ell is not persuaded to stand aside. It has never been held by a woman. Found insideAlthough Morrison managed to retain his prime minister position in a federal election on May 18, 2019, one that many political pundits predicted would be won by Shorten, ... upset Abbo in the generally safe Liberal seat of Warringah. off what looks likely to be a “mini general election”, five simultaneous Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier said he hoped the former New South Wales premier isn't finished with public life. The federal election generally went well for the government, but they suffered a big defeat in the northern Sydney seat of Warringah, where former prime minister Tony Abbott lost his seat after 25 years. It is true that these redistributions favour Labor in the sense that they abolish Stirling (Liberal, WA) but create Hawke (Labor, Victoria). 8 days ago. Barilaro’s 2015 buffer is only 2.6% but his 2019 buffer is 11.7%, making Monaro look safe for the Nationals. On Sunday, Constance said in a statement he wanted to continue representing his local community on issues “such as the new hospital developments, and ensuring the community is listened to on vital projects such as the Milton-Ulladulla and Moruya bypasses”. The Electoral Pendulum is the most effective visual means of explaining electoral results. A member of the Stolen Generation is eyeing off Tony Abbott's seat of Warringah at the upcoming federal election, with the independent vowing to put the environment and Indigenous affairs at the . All I know is that my pendulum treats Warringah as though it were a Labor seat. The two-candidate preferred votes were 52,728 for Steggall and 39,395 for the defeated incumbent Tony Abbott. Cras mattis consectetur purus sit amet fermentum. When one looks at the bottom part of my new pendulum one notices that Labor gains only three seats from LNP on swings under 3%. Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The headline I have put to this article is Labor is very unlikely to win blue ribbon Willoughby and unlikely to win Bega. Found insideSecure though the Party's hold may have been on the federal seat of Warringah, that had been due more to the loyalty of voters than quality of candidates. Neither the sitting member, J. S. Cockle, nor his predecessor, F. A. Bland, ...

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