Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to be 3%, with the same rate of growth for both oil and non-oil GDP, driven by domestic and foreign demand as vaccinations roll out and with the end of the diplomatic rift. Press Release GCC Secondhand Luxury Goods Market 2021-26: Growth, Share, Outlook, Future Growth and Opportunities Published: Nov. 1, 2021 at 3:16 a.m. Saudi reluctance to corral OPEC+ into raising production despite demands from the White House raises the question of what the US offers the kingdom in return. The GCC and Global Economy to Grow in 2021. The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. DUBLIN, Oct. 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The "GCC Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook, 2021" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.. On the back of the GCC's Vision 2030, aluminum GCC Countries Back on Path to Economic Growth after 0000424682 00000 n NBK provides you with timely economic research and analysis on local, regional and international markets, keeping you better informed and up-to-date on the latest trends and developments. 0000003143 00000 n The UAE's real GDP is forecast to grow 2.2 per cent in 2021 and 3 per cent in 2022. Future Market Insights, GCC economic outlook, gcc economy, Middle East economy, Sudip Saha. 0000012746 00000 n UAE based on IMF World Economic Outlook October 2020 forecast 26) TradeArabia, "Bahrain draft budget sees $12.26bn revenue in FY2021-22 . Tim Callen, Mission Chief for Saudi Arabia and Assistant Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund, Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist, Bloomberg Economics, Rola Dashti, Executive Secretary, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Karen Young, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, Moderator: Adel Hamaizia, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, Project Manager, Middle East and North Africa Programme. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility. 0000003456 00000 n Many are open to the public, who can request to attend online; some are invitation only. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. The . Low oil prices and OPEC+ production cuts hobbled the hydrocarbon sector, the backbone of the economy, while the service-oriented non-hydrocarbon economy was severely affected by disruptions in global trade and travel. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted Qatar's real GDP will plunge into negative territory and see a -4.5% change this year. 0000003317 00000 n COVID-19 and its economic fallout exerted a heavy toll on the UAE’s open economy, leading to a contraction of 4% in the first half of 2020 year on year (y/y). In its latest Economic Insight report, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) says the Middle East economy has almost recovered from pandemic losses, aided by higher oil output, vaccination rollouts and easing of restrictions. Meanwhile, the national vaccination program rollout started in late December 2020 with the target of inoculating 80% of the population by September 2021—by end- March, only 8.7% of the population received at least a single dose of the vaccine. 0000008719 00000 n But the pandemic could have a lingering impact on global travel, hampering a speedy recovery of the UAE’s large tourism industry. The World Bank Group works in every major area of development. 0000004016 00000 n Those provisions will boost the level of real GDP by 1.5 percent, on average, in calendar years 2021 and 2022, CBO estimates; the bulk of the impact will occur in 2021. REPORT: UAE 2022. While the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF has kept its GDP growth projections for the Middle East and Central Asia largely unchanged, the GCC countries saw upward revisions for 2021.While . Stock market data on screen. However, debt to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to over 133% in 2021, and to remain elevated in the forecast period implying still large financing needs. Follow @arabnews. Bright future. This report examines what binds and divides the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) statesâBahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emiratesâand presents the outlook for the GCCâs evolution over the next ten ... Saudi Arabia based on KSA's 2021 Fiscal Year 2021 Budget Statement. All GCC economies are highly reliant on oil and gas exports and any disruption in energy prices due to geopolitical tension and a slowdown in the global economy could hurt the recovery. The counterfactual decline for GCC countries is 7.7% and is 4.4% for developing oil exporters.The sharpest declines in real Government revenues in 2020 were among the GCC and developing oil exporters, not surprising . GCC Economic Update — October 2021. This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Materialization of downside scenarios would heighten external financing pressures. The outlook assumes containing the pan-demic, avoidance of another oil price plunge, and successful implementation of fiscal consolidation plans. Improving oil outlook will boost Iraqi economy 12.10.2021. 9 GCC Dairy Market Analysis. The hydrocarbon GDP is estimated to recover reaching almost 1.0 percent growth in 2021 and to remain stable in the forecast period with the unwinding OPEC+ deal by 2022 and further expanding the gas output . A resurgence of COVID-19 infections and renewed downward pressure on oil prices are key downside risks to the outlook. The six economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to rebound and grow 2% to nearly 3% this year while the region's two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are forecast to . The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, whereas the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces. 0000007977 00000 n Doha Bank hosted the webinar '2021 Economic Outlook' yesterday in which the speakers spoke on the economic outlook and opportunities for the year ahead and major themes both globally and in . Economic growth is expected to gradually rebound to 3.3% in 2021, under-pinned by the rebound in non-oil activity as rapid rollout of the vaccine will boost the sectors most impacted by the pandemic. In December 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report which explores how Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) and their respective authorities have been addressing the double impact of COVID-19 and lower oil prices. Governments in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have benefited from the Bank's global knowledge and development experience through their use of technical assistance programs, offered by the World Bank on a reimbursable advisory services (RAS . In its latest Regional Economic Outlook (April 2021), the IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the GCC to 2.7% in 2021 from 2.3% previously, citing early vaccine rollouts relative to many other countries in the region. Saudi Arabia's economy, the region's largest, is expected to grow 2.9% this year, up from the 2.6% forecast in January, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook, released this week. Fitch said that Egypt and UAE are the only countries in the region to maintain progress in . These factors somewhat buffered the impact of COVID- 19. This all adds up to a much more positive outlook for Yemen in 2021 and will likely lead to a new round of peace talks, more prisoner exchanges and a possible economic de-escalation. The economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2021, driven by a more accelerated pick-up in global energy demand and prices and Saudi oil production level closer to its OPEC+ original commitment, resulting in oil sector growth of 0.5 per-cent. The economy will see a return to moderate growth in 2021, with the ease in restrictions helped by a rapid vaccination rollout. The GCC construction industry foresees growth for the next three years, encouraged by factors such as favourable macroeconomics, positive demographics, and rising tourism activities, said an industry expert. For MENA as a whole, the IMF has forecast an overall real GDP growth of 4.1 per cent for both 2021 and 2022. The non-oil real GDP growth rate for GCC countries in 2021, with Oman as an exception, is estimated to touch 3% as per the World Economic Outlook report of the IMF. Kuwait is still adapting to the twin shocks of COVID-19 and slump in oil prices that hard-hit its economy and fiscal and external positions. The sentiment that perhaps best describes the new normal across the Middle East is tempered optimism, says Sudip Saha. The average growth outlook for GCC for 2021 is 2.1 per cent and for 2022, 3.68 per cent. 0000433459 00000 n Downside risks arise from further resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks, volatility in hydrocarbon prices, and delays in fiscal reforms. 0000005421 00000 n H�\��j�0E�� Meanwhile, the national vaccination program rollout started in mid- Dec 2020, ahead of many countries in the region, with the aim of inoculating at least 70% of population by end 2021. Economic Outlook: GCC & Egypt 2021-2024. A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. Further fiscal austerity measures would also act as a headwind to the recovery. -�E�K�Z0�. Qatar entered COVID-19 with a very particular set of circumstances, namely a high specialization in liquefied natural gas exports and very limited inter-action with its immediate neighbors due to a diplomatic rift. With lasting effects from the pandemic and lower oil prices through early 2021, fiscal pressure increased and heightened the pace of some . With 189 member countries, staff from more than 170 countries, and offices in over 130 locations, the World Bank Group is a unique global partnership: five institutions working for sustainable solutions that reduce poverty and build shared prosperity in developing countries. he GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy is a white paper written by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority. Non-oil GDP forecast was raised by 30 bps to 3.8% and a faster recovery in 2022 is expected to push growth to 4.2%, 40 bps higher than previous forecast, added the report titled "Kamco Invest: "Event Update - IMF REO" - October 2021" by Kamco Invest, a regional non-banking financial . The average growth outlook for GCC for 2021 is 2.5 per cent and for 2022 is 4.2 per . 0000002021 00000 n The economy is expected to rebound in tandem with the recovery of the global economy. 0000424020 00000 n Large current ac-count deficits are likely to persist in 2021-23 albeit at slightly moderated levels thanks of modest oil price gains. As per the survey results, 41 per cent of respondents believe the economic outlook for Oman is positive and an additional 24 per cent believe the . 0000424989 00000 n Widespread access to the vaccine, higher oil prices, and commitment to implement policies under . What does COVID-19 mean for economic policy priorities in the GCC? This is the United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global and regional economic outlook for 2020 and 2021. COMTEX . 0000003178 00000 n The outlook for the global economy has darkened. As the vaccination program gains more momentum and COVID-related restrictions are further eased, non-oil sectors will continue its growth trajectory, estimated to reach 4.4% in 2021 to reflect stronger domestic demand. The vaccination rate, currently standing at 7 doses per 100 people, is increasing rapidly, but still too low to give sizable immunity. South Asia regionâs economies are beginning to recover, though unevenly: economic activity in industry and export sectors have recovered to pre-COVID levels but some labor-intensive services sectors and tourism have not. GCC Organ Preservation Market 2021-2026 Competitive Analysis and Segmentation: . This volume comprises two separate papers on key structural aspects of the reform process in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Despite positive outlook for both oil price and private sector, the risk of slow vaccination rollout, delta variant and new restrictions by the states in response to it, looms large . We have become accustomed to projections of a bleak outlook for the global economy in 2020, as reports from leading economic organizations predict a decrease in growth as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the significant fall in oil prices. This is the definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global/regional economic outlook for 2020 and 2021. Debt to-GDP-ratio will remain above 130 percent during the forecast period . The global outlook continues to be uncertain and slowing growth in the advanced economies and China is likely to trans-late into downward pressure on the price of oil. Inflation is anticipated to pick up as economic activity recovers. Which labour market reforms are likely to facilitate job creation for nationals in the private sector? Kuwait Business: Lower oil output 'to affect GCC GDP recovery in 2021' - Gulf Digital News . 0000004407 00000 n Medium-term growth is expected to reach 3.3% while headline inflation in 2021 is expected drop, as VAT-driven impact on inflation dissipates. Image used for illustrative purpose. This, coupled with a sustained recovery of global trade and travel, would allow the non-hydrocarbon sector to rebound. Debt to-GDP-ratio will remain above 130 percent during the forecast period . Bahrain: Bahrain will continue to rely on fiscal support measures in 2021 to overcome the economic contraction in 2020. 0000006663 00000 n . If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. Join Arabian Business and Wasim Saifi - deputy CEO, Consumer Banking and Wealth Management at Emirates Islamic; Maurice Gravier - chief investment officer at Emirates NBD Group, and their teams for a live webinar diving into the financial trends shaping the months ahead 9.1 Key Industry Highlights 9.2 GCC Raw Milk Historical Production (2016-2020) 9.3 GCC Raw Milk Production Forecast (2021-2026) 9.4 GCC Dairy Historical Market (2016-2020) The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Capital buffers and liquidity are expected to remain stable and adequate for the risks. ECONOMIC REPORTS. 0000030067 00000 n This report investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in helping developing countries participate in global value chains (GVCs). Heavy GDP losses are observed across all MENA country groups. The Economic Outlook for 2026 to 2031 In CBO's projections, the economy continues to expand 0000005958 00000 n The Economic and Financial Outlook in the GCC Countries _____10 C. Policy Priorities _____17 . 124 0 obj <> endobj xref Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Significant disruptions related to COVID-19 compounded by sharp fall in oil prices weighed heavily on Bahrain’s economy in 2020. What is the economic outlook for 2021? GPCA analysis. The GDP level in 2021 for developing oil importers is forecast to be 9.3% below the counterfactual GDP level without the pandemic. Muscat - SICO, a Bahrain-based leading regional investment bank, has released the results of its inaugural investor return assessment survey, a first-of-its kind look into the economic and return expectations of investors across Oman and the GCC. See all Held under the Rule when appropriate. 0000027418 00000 n The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its July 2021 Article IV Consultation. The report examines near- and mid-term economic policy prospects and challenges across the GCC, as well as the structural reforms required to enhance diversification efforts, strengthen private sector-led growth, and increase job creation. As the UAE celebrates its 50 th anniversary, UAE 2022 provides an update on the UAE's Vision 2021 and Centennial 2071 economic development plans. Kuwait: Oil exports will continue to drive Kuwait's growth dynamics. Data and research help us understand these challenges and set priorities, share knowledge of what works, and measure progress. Which structural reforms are required to galvanize private sector growth?
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